Saturday, March 8, 2008

Building the Raptors, Part Three


Rarely are assets viewed as "problems," but to the hyper-neurotic community of Raptors' fans, having two quality point guards in Jose Calderon and T.J. Ford has become a dilemma, especially with Calderon's impending free agency.

How much money will he command? Which teams will be offering him nosegays and confections, courting our inscrutable Castillian star? Bryan Colangelo catches a break, since the only teams that look like they'll be under the cap next season are the Sixers, Sonics and possibly the Clippers. It's safe to assume that someone will offer AT LEAST the mid-level exception ($6 million) to Calderon, but given that the Sixers have Andre Miller under contract next year for $10 million, and that they have to re-sign Andre Iguodala who wants big dough, it probably won't be them. The Sonics recently (moronically) re-signed Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson to more than $5.5 million each (for full figures see below), so their hands are tied, albeit loosely. The Clippers have too many variables, such as Elton Brand exercising his player option and Corey Magette not exercising his, which is a near certainty. Of all the teams waiting to steal the Spanish Fly, I think the Clippers have the best shot, but a few things have to happen before they even make an offer.

And, historically, teams are reluctant to make an offer to a restricted free agent unless they know they can sign him, since the offer is counted against a team's cap, restricting its ability to sign other free agents. It may not even matter given that Colangelo has the ability to match any offer, something which he's publicly said he will do.

Currently T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon make a combined $10.5 million (T.J. - $8 million; Calderon - $2.5 million). This makes them one of the most inexpensive point guard combos in the league, cheaper than the Timberwolves' consortium of clowns ($10.7 million). Considering the market and the situations outlined above, I expect Calderon to sign a three-year, $22.5 million deal ($7.5 million per season). I can mask it behind cap facts and trends, but realistically it's just a guess.

If Calderon does sign as I expect, it would put the Raptors PG tandem at $15.5 million per season, which sounds like a lot for one position but isn't; Keep reading for an explanation why.

Stephon Marbury alone makes $20.1 million this year and will "earn" $21.9 million next year. When you add back-up Nate Robinson's $1.2 million this year and $2 million next year you get totals of $21.3 million and $23.9 million. Imagine if the Knicks still had Steve Francis.

Below is a team-by-team point guard payroll. I've only included teams that are comparable to the projected PG payroll of the Raps and others that I found interesting. You won't see teams like the Jazz or the Hornets on here because their kids are still on rookie contracts even though they're playing like future hall-of-famers.

The Well-Managed:

Detroit Pistons = $12.3 million + ?

  • Chauncey Billups - $10 million + $11 million
  • Lindsey Hunter - $2.3 million + FA

Phoenix Suns = $17 million + $18.4 million

  • Steve Nash - $11.4 million + $12.3 million
  • Leandro Barbosa - $5.6 million + $6.1 million
  • I realize Barbosa isn't a true point guard, but he's what they go with while Captain Canada's lying on his stomach in a carapace of towels.

San Antonio Spurs = $11.7 million + 12.8 million

  • Tony Parker - $10.5 million + $11.5 million
  • Jacque Vaughn - $1.2 million + $1.3 million

The So-So:

Atlanta Hawks: 2008 = $19.8 million; 2009 = $20.2 million

  • Mike Bibby - $13.5 million + $14.5 million
  • Speedy Claxton - $6.3 million + $5.7 million

Chicago Bulls = $14.3 million + ?

  • Kirk Hinrich - $11 million + $10 million
  • Chris Duhon - $3.3 million + FA

Dallas Mavericks = $20.3 million + at least $21.3 million

  • Jason Kidd - $19.7 million + $21.3 million
  • Jose Juan Barea - $600,000 + FA

Golden State Warriors = $16.4 million + $17.1 million

  • Baron Davis - $16.4 million + $17.1 million
  • Davis has no real "back-up." The team runs the ball through Stephen Jackson and Monta Ellis during the less than nine minutes Baron replaces his electrolytes on the bench. For that reason, I haven't included their salaries.

Philadelphia 76ers = $12.7 million + ?

  • Andre Miller - $9.3 million + $10 million
  • Kevin Ollie - $3.4 million + FA

Washington Wizards = $17.7 million + a lot more

  • Gilbert Arenas - $11.9 million + a lot more
  • Antonio Daniels - $5.8 million + $6.2 million

The Queer:

Los Angeles Clippers = $12.5 million + phantom PG

  • Sam Cassell (buy-out) - $6.1 million + FA
  • Shaun Livingston - $4.4 million + FA
  • Brevin Knight - $2 million + FA

Miami Heat = $12.7 million + ?

  • Jayson Williams - $8.9 million + FA
  • Marcus Banks - $3.88 million +FA

Minnesota Timberwolves = $10.7 million + $12.8 million

  • Marco Jaric - $6 million + $6.5 million
  • Troy Hudson - $4.7 million + $6.3 million
  • Given the quality of Jaric and Hudson I find their combined salaries hilarious. But on top of that the Wolves have Randy Foye and Sebastian Telfair signed to rookie deals.

New York Knicks = $21.3 million + $23.9 million

  • Stephon Marbury -$20.1 million + $21.9 million
  • Nate Robinson - $1.2 million + $2 million

Orlando Magic = $5.9 million + ?

  • Carlos Arroyo - $4 million + FA
  • Jameer Nelson - $ 1.9 million + $5.5 million

Portland TrailBlazers = $20.7 million + at least $17.2 million

  • Steve Francis (buy-out) - $16.4 million + $17. 2 million
  • Steve Blake - $4.3 million + FA

Seattle SuperSonics = $12.3 million + $12.7 million

  • Luke Ridnour - $6.5 million + $6.5 million
  • Earl Watson - $5.8 million + $6.2 million

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